Despite my obvious interest in Pakistan, I did not want to write about Musharraf's resignation until I had some time to really think about the implications. There has been plenty of commentary, most of which is missing the point.Musharraf was an army man at heart who eschewed democracy for iron fisted control of the military and intelligence communities. His biggest accomplishment was holding onto power for this long. Just after that was his ability to hoodwink the US into believing he was the man who could lead the region into stability.
History will wait to judge Musharraf until Pakistan's position in the geopolitical realm is resolved. If Pakistan remains stable and is able to control extremism (it will never be fully stamped out), he will be praised for his military prowess and vision in aligning Pakistan with the US. If Pakistan slides deeper into decline and becomes a lawless frontier, then he will be blamed for not doing enough and leaving the civilian government with its hands tied. The truth is that, as much as people call for the coalition to stay strong, they will continue to quibble over the problematic domestic issues that hang over the country (judges, inflation, and violence).
Matthew Yglesias almost gets it right. The US needs a Pakistan policy that is not based on a "new Musharraf" or other figurehead; but this is simply not possible. Pakistani politics, like the Indian variety, are based on cults of personality. Until Pakistani political discourse becomes rooted in policy and not people, the US has little chance of influencing the country's course. The only possibility of guiding Pakistan to a more stable economy and democracy is to divert money from the military to development schemes. If we can build private enterprise and political participation, perhaps the people of Pakistan will demand more from a better leader. Unfortunately, the rudder remains up for now.
