Legalize it!

No, not that.

For the past couple of years I have relentlessly advocated the legalization of poppy growth in Afghanistan. And now an expert agrees!

Poppy grows really well in Afghanistan and is easily converted into very transportable tar, a primary ingredient for heroin. The Taliban had effectively outlawed poppy farming; but Anti-Government Forces (taliban with a "little t") have found it an incredibly effective means of filling their coffers (taking a page from the narco-terrorist FARC's playbook). Poppy growth rates exploded the past few years, especially in the more dangerous and uncontrollable southern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan - which now contain 82% of the global area under opium poppy cultivation.

Counterinsurgency 101 tells us to cut off financial support for insurgents, but with drugs this can be really tricky. You will isolate/anger a non-aligned farmer by destroying his crop, whatever it might be. After all, he's just trying to get by. It's hard enough to win hearts and minds in rural areas where the central government has little presence and it doesn't help when the first government official a farmer might ever meet comes to eradicate his income. So I advocate legalizing poppy growth with an important caveat: government monopsony.

Perhaps such an effort would need to be subsidized, but a legal market for poppy could feed legitimate morphine production by pharmaceutical companies. And in the spirit of Obama-mania, we could probably even engage with Iran in this effort; which is suffering high levels of opium use these days, especially in their youth population (and we know why dissatisfied youth are dangerous).

(Photo: LA Times) 

Mistaken for mujahideen

Finally in Afghanistan we are starting to see a bit of cohesion: an actual plan, not imposed by NATO or the US, but brought in conjunction with Karzai's Afghan development and support. The New York Times reports that

American and Afghan officials intend to set up local militias of 100 to 200 fighters in each provincial district...militiamen will be given a brief period of training, along with weapons like assault rifles and grenade launchers...

What I've been saying about Afghanistan all this time included a call for greater tribal engagement. This doesn't mean we arm the people! Despite Petraeus being the genius of Iraq, or something similar depending what weeklies you read, a universal re-application of his Sunni Awakening media campaign tactic probably won't work in Afghanistan. Council members who we continue to pay in Iraq as local militia police forces are mostly in urban areas - Baghdad was where we needed the most help in Iraq. In Afghanistan, the border region is vast, sparsely populated, and without central organization. The tribes cannot and won't act in unison. They speak different languages and have wildly different social and religious customs, even within those who follow Islam and not animist religions. Militias will be forced to cover vast regions beyond their traditional tribal lands - not their small, local neighborhood.

For tribal engagement to work as a defense tactic against the Taliban we need to build roads, schools, and civic centers. Tribal groups obviously need to feel safe to help US forces in the fight against the Taliban, but this doesn't mean they should have to do it themselves. Embedded forces combined with greater development efforts is the way to stop the Taliban's second coming. Let's hope this is something the US and Afghans can figure out together.

(Photo by erwinlux)

COIN in the news

The New York Times revealed today a 2004 blanket order was signed by President Bush allowing secret covert action pretty much wherever the Pentagon wants, and in some cases, without his express permission. This shines a little light on the recent operations in Syria, but military attacks on sovereign countries, without specific Presidential permission to do so, are not what God, Clausewitz, or the Constitution intended!

Accountability is fundamental in a democracy, including ours! It is not acceptable for the Commander in Chief of the world’s most expensive military to delegate the most important statecraft decision! What is Bush thinking? Where is the outrage? Oh wait, right here…

It seems especially odd that such measures are allowed as US forces are already "innovating" on their own. Case in point? Task Force ODIN is heading to Afghanistan. 

ODIN, also the Norse god of war and death, stands for “Observe, Detect, Identify, Neutralize.” This entity, a Bob Gates creation developed for Iraqi COIN, is a unit of approximately 400 people. Equipped with monitoring aircraft, analysts, and quick attack forces, ODIN specializes in detecting IEDs along the road, and has been responsible for neutralizing over 3,000 insurgents. The measure of their success in Iraq seems to be much more effective than secretive air strikes that rely on dubious intelligence and kill more than a few civilians.

The intention is for Task Force ODIN in Afghanistan is to protect the nearly complete “Ring Road," which connects the major cities and is crucial for commerce, development, and general security. This represents an interesting evolution of the usual strictly hierarchically structured American military, which was designed to take on the Soviet Union in the Fulda Gap. ODIN is flexible and fast, much like the enemy coalition forces face.  

When the Taliban can jack a NATO convoy in Pakistan and move scot-free into Afghanistan, it's obvious the tribal belt is pretty lawless.  Scary stuff for sure, but it seems that it will be ODIN, not the propensity of the US military to ignore borders, that will get these guys and their new toy.