Afghanistan: the weak link in a stronger global chain?

The war in Afghanistan may not end well for the US; history has not been kind to foreign forces. But there are signs that it will become the key linkage in the Obama administration's attempts at redefining US foreign relations.

NATO announced today that it was restoring high-level contacts with Russia. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that, amongst others, Afghanistan was an issue of "mutual concern." She also expressed her support for a conference on Afghanistan that would bring together all of the key stakeholders in the region, including Iran. From the BBC:

"If we move forward with such a meeting, it is expected that Iran would be invited as a neighbour of Afghanistan," she said.

The challenges posed by Afghanistan are shared by each country in the region (whether there by geography, choice or military alliance). Beyond the obvious interest of each stakeholder in the country's success, Afghanistan may provide the conduit for a diplomatic thaw in US-Russia (a "reset"), US-Iran relations (a handshake, maybe?). Stay tuned...

Rule of who?

No one seems to know what to make of the Blackwater case. Charges against the contractors, who turned themselves in, have been filed in Utah based on their role in the deaths of 17 Iraqi civilians in Baghdad back in September 2007. The 6 men are the first to be charged under the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act; 5 of the 6 have pled not guilty.

Thankfully under this law they can be tried for their crimes here in the US, because Lord knows they will never be extradited to Iraq. But would they be able to at least get a fair trial there? The answer to that question depends on whether Iraq functions under the rule of law. If the rule of law is defined by a functioning judiciary, then the country passes, but just barely. The US has sunk a LOT of money into rebuilding the courts (as it has in Afghanistan as well), but the problem is that the staff are underpaid, and sad to say, often corrupt.

Rebuilding a judicial system from the ground up is no small feat, but it is vital to any successful nation building operation. Just as important as the police force, the legal system must be able to handle not only the large number of cases, but do so in a fair manner. It may not be a realistic way of testing the system, but it would tell us more about the capabilities of the Iraqi judicial system more than any of the High Court's reviews of oil contracts or parliamentary actions.

The rise of nation building

Ok, last post Afghanistan or Pakistan for a while. Promise.

Today, I had the pleasure of meeting James Dobbins. He was former special envoy to Afghanistan and spoke at the New America Foundation about the lessons he learned while engineering the Bonn Agreement, which established the Afghan government following the US invasion and was a foundation for their new Constitution. His discussion leant itself toward more technical aspects of political development and nation building but allow me to summarize two of his more interesting points regarding the current situation in South Asia.

The Pakistani government regards the current conflict in FATA as a problem between the US and extremists NOT as a problem between Pakistan and extremist militants.

I have said something to this effect before. A large part of this sentiment stems from Pakistan's longstanding support of separatist rebels in Kashmir. The country has a history of harboring extremist groups that may benefit Pakistan at some point (and the Taliban serves to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan).

The current icy relations with Iran are a result of misguided confidence in Iraq.

This sounds controversial. Conventional knowledge says Iran has been adversarial since Khomeini came to power. Not true. Iran has played an instrumental role in the reconstruction (and financial support) of Afghanistan and wanted to be heavily involved in development efforts. By shunning Iranian attempts to aid in reconstruction (when they were willing to capitulate to a host of US demands), the Bush administration seriously miscalculated their position. Seeing quick "success" in Afghanistan and hoping for the same after a quick military takeover of Iraq, Rumsfeld's belief was that once surrounded by two functioning democracies, built from the ground up by the US and allies, Iran would be forced to meet ALL US demands. Well I don't need to remind you that's not quite how events unfolded.

These were two of the more interesting and provoking stances Dobbins took but the entire event is worth checking out.