Predict(able)

Obama may be on vacation, but his proposed stimulus plan has garnered alot of economic debate, which is certainly not of the post-partisan variety. In case you haven't been following it, the huge surprise is a back and forth between Mankiw and Krugman. Shockingly they're duking it out over whether tax cuts or government spending is more efficient to spur economic growth. 

These are both very, very intelligent men, but lest we find ourselves trending to whatever side our political inclinations may lead, let us keep in mind that forecasting is hard. And if it's hard to predict oil or food prices, how can we seriously hope to predict what this stimulus will produce; especially when economic historians still debate the exact causes and escape mechanisms of the Great Depression. 

What we must admit and accept is that the experimentation and bold action our current situation requires could easily be hampered if we require historical precedent. This is not to say that healthy and vigorous debate is not needed; it most certainly is. But let us not forget that debate should eventually produce some action. For now, we can only hope that today's recession fears go the way of the Y2K bug, but until history proves that view, let's have something more than words in place.