The paradox that is South Africa

The past week has laid bare the stark contrasts between South Africa's ambition and reality, progress and failures.

On February 21, tickets went on sale for the 2010 World Cup. ZA is the first African country to host the tournament. Its winning bid came to symbolize not just the country's post-apartheid progress, but a sense that the entire continent's development was turning a corner as well. While ZA is still racing to complete the massive infrastructure projects associated with the event, the dream many doubted would ever be realized seems all but assured. The importance of this event to a football-mad continent should not be underestimated.

If only the country's economic outlook was so hopeful. South Africa's post-apartheid economic progress is evident. But it's only part of the story. While the emergence of a growing black middle class has been one of its greatest measures of progress, it thinly veils a broader failure to bring economic empowerment to the millions of residents of townships from Soweto to Langa. The percentage of South Africans living with HIV has been estimated at 20%; in fact, life expectancy has fallen by 10 years since the end of apartheid. Crime is truly epidemic. Oh yeah, and there are the tricky issues of Jacob Zuma, the ANC civil war and rising political violence.

One would expect these persistent problems to only worsen now that the economy appears to be falling of a cliff. The government reported today that the economy contracted in Q4 2008, ending the country's longest economic expansion on record. Thousands of jobs are being shed by foreign mining firms. Manufacturing output has slumped to a 40-year low. Even gold production, in which South Africa was the world's leader until 2007, plummeted to its lowest level in 86 years. This is troubling for a sector that accounts for 2.5% of GDP.

I know- quite the pessimistic outlook for a country that has been hailed as a model for post-conflict reconciliation and economic development. But South Africa faces a difficult year, all the while preparing for a remarkable one in 2010. Like other emerging market stars, South Africa represents a bright future. But there are dark days ahead.

Talking points

The BBC is reporting today that negotiations on a power sharing deal in Zimbabwe are being adjourned, though not abandoned. According to the original agreement, the talks must reach an agreement by the end of this week.

I've said before that these talks were too timid. Such a response to the terror and chaos Mugabe has imposed on Zimbabwe is irresponsible and proving ineffective. Mugabe will not become a "figurehead"; more importantly, the generals who have become rich and powerful during his rule will not cease to cast long shadows on the country's development even if he does. Zimbabwe requires a lot of help and even if Tsvangirai is handed the reins, the country will need a vast and coordinated international effort to stem any further decline.

It would be encouraging to see a pro-active response to an African crisis that does not involve peacekeepers. Though Mbeki does not offer much hope as an impartial mediator, he will likely keep violence from returning. He will not be able to fully dispel Mugabe (though I doubt anyone would) but it is in his interest to see Tsvangirai in power. If he can get Mugabe on lesser footing, Western aid will sink into Zimbabwe likely stopping the flow of refugees and homeless into South Africa. This, and the resultant economic upswing, would have political benefits for him at home.

It may not be ideal but if Mugabe can be convinced or canoodled into any lesser role, the result will be an improvement. Let's hope that Mbeki can deliver.

African missteps

The African Union was busy today ignoring human rights and political freedom.

Their request to the UN Security Council to drop war crime charges against Sudan's President Bashir was actually a good step. The ICC's decision to charge Bashir was a misguided one. The blood shed in Darfur is on the hands of many, not just Bashir. Hated as he may be, his removal would create a power vacuum that would simply jeopardize any future attempts at peace.

The AU decision to back South African reconciliation efforts was a meek and tepid attempt to avoid criticism. Relegating such responsibility to South African President Mbeki, an implicit Mugabe supporter, was an irresponsible move and Tsvangirai should have demanded more from the African and international community. 

The situation in Zimbabwe was much more severe than Kenya and as such requires a stronger resolution than a power-sharing agreement. Kenya's violence, though country-wide and intense, was not as extreme as Mugabe's methodical extermination. The people of Zimbabwe deserve better and the international and African institutions responsible should give it to them.