If you read one article about Election 2008, make sure it's this piece that Clive Crook wrote for the FT. Truth be told, I'm fascinated by the so-called "horse race" aspect of American Presidential politics, which is a show quite unlike anything else. But I try not to get too obsessed with it: I think we all realize that the endless day-to-day minute campaign analysis is largely meaningless.
This is the essence of Mr. Crook's column: tune out what the pundits say every day and focus on the big picture. Economic growth is low, and GWB has very low approval ratings and has been in office for 8 years. As Mr. Crook writes, political scientist Alan Abramowitz has a very simple formula which accounts only for these three variables, and he's used it to correctly predict the outcome of 14 of the last 15 presidential elections. (I might add that he got the 1968 election wrong by a tiny margin.)
His model is predicting not just a win but an absolute cakewalk for Barack Obama, similar to the trouncing that Ronald Reagan gave Jimmy Carter in 1980. Leaving your own politics out of it and keeping this article in mind, now might be a good time to head over to intrade and buy some "Obama Wins Presidency" contracts. I've copied the price chart for you below: as of July 23rd, they're trading at $6.53 and will pay out $10.00 if Obama wins.
Full Disclosure: I do not personally hold any financial positions pertaining to the 2008 Presidential Election and am not connected in any way to either presidential campaign.
Disclaimer: All investments involve a degree of risk and there are no guaranteed returns.
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