Republican Redux?

Is the Republican party's "big tent" falling apart? Probably not, but worth considering given the very public departure of many realist conservatives from the McCain ticket. Goldenberg's list (via Dan Drezner) includes many besides Colin Powell, who made his very public endorsement this weekend.

Those running away from McCain probably have one of four motives: their advice was ignored by this administration and they want to make that clear to regain public trust; their advice was followed and they want to distance themselves from their failures; they are campaigning individuals who want to ride the "change" wave, and; they believe the Republican party (or at least in the manifestation of John McCain) no longer represents their beliefs.

These certainly aren't hard and fast categories, nor are they mutually exclusive. The first three are rather obvious, but not nearly as interesting as the possibility of the last. The Republican party has relied on a grand coalition of social and economic conservatives (much like the Democrat's labor bent). If those who ascribe to small government, limited spending, and pragmatic foreign policy no longer see their place in the Republican party then the ever more tenuous bargain will collapse. Culture wars have distracted McCain and Bush from their true base. Let's hope the next Republican candidate recognizes that.