Who to believe?

Depending on who you believe, the Taliban and Afghan government are either in, or preparing for, negotiations sponsored by Saudi Arabia. President Karzai has admitted that negotiations are forthcoming, Taliban officials either set conditions or deny them, and rumors are circulating in policy circles that Pakistan has been speaking with the Saudis for at least a few months in an effort to secure their involvement.

Given the way information comes out of Afghanistan, it is likely that the Saudis are increasing their involvement in some way; but no clear picture has yet emerged on what these talks are meant to achieve. Supposedly "moderate" elements of the Taliban have split from Al-Qaeda and are interested in entering into the political arena. But without real consensus within the Taliban, can any agreement be trusted? Do we have any other choice with seemingly all our allies calling our efforts futile and useless?

I've said for a while that regional consensus and negotiation is necessary for any type of Afghan stability. Any form of coalition government is a bit scary given the Taliban's track record. The best scenario such a peace deal would yield involves peacekeepers, long-term border forces, and a weakened (and nonviolent form) of the Taliban as a minor opposition group to centrist political parties fashioned in Karzai's model. The likelihood of this is obviously slim so what we need before any more "talks" is a defined end goal and confirmation whether all actors would be willing to accept a less than ideal result in exchange for hopeful stability.