We live in strange, rapidly changing times. Just trying to keep up with the latest news on the financial crisis is practically a full time job. Last week? Might as well be talking about last year. 3 months ago? It’s like the swinging 60s are back again!
In this spirit, I want to publicly admit that I was wrong. I’ve spent a lot of time writing about oil prices on this blog, and it’s plain to see that the prediction I made about a $100 price floor for oil was... quite misguided. I still think I have the supply and demand fundamentals right, but I realize now how remarkably little I understand about pricing in oil markets. A $100 floor, which seemed reasonable in July, now looks rather absurd.
I still intend to theorize on the fundamentals and whether they will shift prices, but I'm going to shy away from price predictions.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
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